TRUDEAU EXITS….VERY SLOWLY
A Canadian case of déjà vu
One of the many attractions of moving to Canada, which I am in the middle of doing, is that there is every prospect of a modest political revolution in 2025 which may usher in a period of growth redolent of the economic booms that followed the elections of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. It is overly simplistic to suggest that the man who is very likely to be Canada’s next Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre, is a pure Reaganite or Thatcherite but he leans in that direction. Unlike the current PM Justin Trudeau who, sort of, resigned today ushering in the election that will lead to change.
“Sort of resigned” because he will remain as Liberal leader, and therefore as Prime Minister, until his party go through the mechanics of electing a successor which could take many weeks. To provide time for this process and also to avoid the embarrassment of potentially losing a vote of confidence Trudeau has adopted a Boris Johnson technique and has prorogued Parliament until March 24th.
Having lived in the UK through the extraordinary mess that was the Brexit process under the leadership of Boris I am all too familiar with the concept of prorogation. One immediate result of this action is Canada’s online political community is scrabbling around to try and understand what proroguing really means. Hence the sense of déjà vu. I have been here before.
When Boris tried this stunt tens of thousands of people took to the streets to protest - but that was August in London when there was something of a holiday atmosphere. February in Ottawa presents a somewhat more challenging prospect as the temperature is typically around minus 10 degrees with a foot or more of snow to wade through.
But some form of protest against what is effectively a political stunt does seems quite likely. And it is technically possible Canada could end up going through the same sort of court system as the UK which ultimately resulted in Boris’s actions being declared unlawful by the doughty Lady Brenda Hale with her famous spider badge. Interesting to speculate what decoration the equivalent Canadian legal officer might choose.
And there is another does of déjà vu in the shape of Mark Carney – remember him the softly spoken and reassuring governor of the Bank of England during the COVID crisis. He is one of the names touted as a possible successor to Trudeau. But why he would want to captain a ship already sinking fast is hard to imagine.
Recent British experience suggests that the electorate takes a very dim view of political parties, way behind in the opinion polls, who change Prime Minister without going through the inconvenience of holding a general election. Technically the Liberals could go on until October 2025 but that seems ill advised as the bad will created by the prorogation exercise and then by continuing in power without a proper mandate will surely make their electoral position even worse.
Another element of déjà vu is the pre-election rhetorical performance of the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Watching him on YouTube, his medium of choice, I do wonder if Dominic Cummings has secretly moved to Canada to support the Conservative campaigning efforts.
Poilievre would appear to be student of the rhetorical skills of Cicero. Very fond of alliteration: “Leaderless Liberals”; Common-sense Conservatives; the snappy tricolon: “axe the tax” , and the combination punch of “Carbon Tax Carney” . One of his current favorites is particularly redolent of Brexit Britain is he now urges Canadians to “take back control”. If he puts it on the side of a bus I will know Dom C. has made the trip over.
However much the Liberals string it out there will be an election at some point in 2025 which will make Canada an exciting new place to be – even if I cannot vote.